Does home price or interest rate save you more money?

October 29, 2018, 4:05 pm

≫ Next: Home prices still on the rise in Portland but slowing down

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Loan interest rates have been rising steadily throughout 2018.  Many experts believe this will continue for the next 12 months at least.  Something that can really help buyers and sellers both in todays market is something we call the “SELLER BUY DOWN STRATEGY”

Did you realize that you can have the seller subsidize your mortgage?  Sellers can generally contribute up to 3% of the sale price to the buyer side closing fees.  For a situation where the seller won’t come down in price to the level acceptable for the buyer, a large seller credit to pay for LOAN DISCOUNT POINTS can have an immediate impact for the buyer.  2-3% of the loan balance can often create a FIXED INTEREST RATE of about .75% below market.

For example: in a $500k purchase, the monthly payment would be improved by $110 with a $25k price reduction…. And with an $11k SELLER CREDIT – the monthly payment is improved by $211

To achieve that same payment with market interest rates, you’d have to reduce the price by $47,500 dollars!!  SO – the buyer gets to execute at the equivalent of a $47k price reduction, and the seller only has to pay $11k to achieve it.  Win Win!

Info courtesy of www.PDXHomeLoan.com

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Home prices still on the rise in Portland but slowing down

November 28, 2018, 11:28 am

≫ Next: The Portland Buyers Window 2019

≪ Previous: Does home price or interest rate save you more money?

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Home prices have been on the rise in Portland since early 2012. From 2012 to 2018 prices have come close to doubling and that is a pace that is not sustainable. The median home price in Portland is now $392,500 according to RMLS.

The latest Case/Shiller report shows Portland and the rest of the US starting to cool off a bit. Currently prices are up 5.1% which is still above the long term average of 3% appreciation per year. This slow down coincides with interest rates rising to just under 5% which, along with rising prices, is keeping some buyers on the sidelines.

Here’s a great article on the report and the Portland real estate market: Oregonian Article

Another new factor that has some buyers waiting is the Portland rental market which is seeing lower rents and higher vacancy.

 

 

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The Portland Buyers Window 2019

January 9, 2019, 8:59 am

≫ Next: 2018 Portland Real Estate Year in Review

≪ Previous: Home prices still on the rise in Portland but slowing down

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There is a very predictable cycle each year in Portland real estate. There’s the secret hiding in the graph of annual average prices. While there is a lot of volatility in the stock market and government, the real estate market moves slowly.

Each year most of the price gains in real estate in Portland happen from March to July. The rest of the cycle from August to February prices typically drop and then bounce below that summer’s high.

Make no mistake that we are still in a seller’s market but there is a window of time for buyers and investors to lock in what should be the best deals of 2019 between now and March.

It’s also worth noting that the volatility in stocks has driven mortgage rates back below 5% for most borrowers.

While I clearly can’t make any guarantees I’m predicting that prices will rise 3-5% in Portland in 2019 and most of that gain will likely show up from March to July.

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2018 Portland Real Estate Year in Review

January 15, 2019, 2:05 pm

≫ Next: Distress Free Portland Oregon? Almost…

≪ Previous: The Portland Buyers Window 2019

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Here are the highlights on the 2018 Portland Real Estate market:

1: All time high average price of $475,000

2: Average days to sell grows to over two months

3: Highest inventory in the last 3 years: 3.1 months in September

4: Mortgage interest rates jump to over 5% then drop back to 4.75%

5: Most homes for sale in the last three years: 7,082 in September

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Distress Free Portland Oregon? Almost…

February 5, 2019, 10:22 am

≫ Next: Should I list my home on Valentine’s Day?

≪ Previous: 2018 Portland Real Estate Year in Review

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3,710 properties are currently available or in contract in Portland Oregon today. With much talk lately of a slow down in real estate after a very slow December it might lead you to believe that the cracks are starting to show in the real estate market.

I took a look at how many bank owned (REO) and short sale properties there currently are in the Portland, Oregon either on the market or in contract and the number will surprise you.

Currently there are 50 bank owned properties are available or pending, and that’s only 0.13% of the current real estate market

Currently there are 34 short sale properties are available or pending, and that’s only 0.09%

To give this context, at the bottom of the Portland real estate market from June through December 2011, Bank owned properties accounted for 877 of the 5,561 sales, or 16% of all sales in that period.

These very low distressed property numbers point to a positive 2019 in the Portland, Oregon real estate market.

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Should I list my home on Valentine’s Day?

February 12, 2019, 2:59 pm

≫ Next: Prices dropped in Portland, Oregon but it’s not a Buyer’s Market yet…

≪ Previous: Distress Free Portland Oregon? Almost…

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Every seller wants to get the most money in the least amount of time. So if that’s your goal when should you list your home?

Many people choose to wait until late spring and summer when the trees are full, lawns are lush, and flowers blooming. And while your home might look better in the summer you should keep in mind that most people list their homes in that season so your competition goes way up for the buyers who are shopping.

It might seem counter intuitive but I’ve had great success for clients by listing homes around Valentine’s Day. Buyers have recovered from the holidays and many people make new years resolutions to find a new home. Something interesting happens in February; Buyer activity picks up but many sellers are still waiting for the sun. This creates an imbalance that favors sellers until April when all the other sellers jump into the pool.

So if you’re thinking of making a move, think of chocolate and roses in the Rose City of Portland, Oregon and beat the rush when you want to sell your house.

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Prices dropped in Portland, Oregon but it’s not a Buyer’s Market yet…

February 19, 2019, 12:04 pm

≫ Next: How your beliefs affect how you invest in real estate

≪ Previous: Should I list my home on Valentine’s Day?

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There’s a lot of news about the median home price in Portland, Oregon dropping 1.3% January 2019 compared to January 2018. Before you panic and think our market is crashing here are some stats to keep in mind. 5.3% Higher: The median home price of 2018 vs. 2017

3.3 Months: The months of home inventory – Buyer’s markets don’t start until we have more than 6 months of inventory.

4,760: The number of active listings – same as we had in April 2018

76: Average Days on Market before a home gets an accepted offer.

So while there is more competition among sellers, I expect the market to rise as it typically does starting in March and peaking in July or August 2019. If you’ve been waiting to buy I think there is an excellent window of opportunity right now for buyers. If you’re buying and selling I would recommend you move if you find the right place. If you’re just selling and moving out of town or to a rental I’d look at listing in April or May 2019.

While I have a pretty good crystal ball there are no guarantees the year will unfold as I expect so seek the advice of a great Realtor or give us a call if you need a great Realtor team to help you make a move!

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How your beliefs affect how you invest in real estate

February 26, 2019, 9:22 am

≫ Next: Oregon Passes Statewide Rent Control

≪ Previous: Prices dropped in Portland, Oregon but it’s not a Buyer’s Market yet…

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I was reminded this week of a famous quote from Gandhi:

Your beliefs become your thoughts. Your thoughts become your words. Your words become your actions. Your actions become your habits. Your habits become your values. Your values become your destiny.

There is a ton of chatter right now in the real estate space in the US and locally here in Portland, Oregon. Make no mistake that vacancies have risen and rents have come down. There are two opposing views of reality as it pertains to investment property.

Bullish outlook: Interest rates will stay low, Deliveries of new buildings will decline in 2020 and on, Population growth will continue, rent control measures will be a manageable risk factor. If you believe this narrative then investing now with low interest rates and a longer term hold you expect to make a profit when population growth absorbs the available units and creates a new housing shortage.

Bearish outlook: Interest rates will rise which in turn lowers the asset value of a building, Deliveries of new buildings will decline in 2020 and on, Population growth will slow. Rent control measures will scare away future investors. If you believe this narrative then investing now is risky with uncertainty in the political climate and growth trends of our market. Likely with this belief you will wait for a better deal in the future.

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Oregon Passes Statewide Rent Control

March 12, 2019, 8:18 am

≫ Next: Portland to have Sacramento weather by 2080?

≪ Previous: How your beliefs affect how you invest in real estate

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Oregon just passed a statewide rent control law, the first of it’s kind in the nation. Unfortunately there is no evidence or support from economists that rent control lowers rents or provides more units. On the contrary it reduces mobility among tenants and makes other investments more attractive to investors. See a great summary and FAQ with link to the bill.

The market will adapt and those costs and risks will get passed onto the tenants. Already Portland has seen a 10+ percent drop in available rental homes as owners are selling when they go vacant. I personally had to leave two rental homes vacant for collectively a year as I knew that I wanted to sell and I would be forced to pay relocation fees when the leases were over. The crazy thing is that an owner and tenant can no longer have a valid lease in my opinion if the tenant can break the lease when they want and the landlord is committing to a lifetime lease for the tenant who has no investment or risk.

This also comes at a time when luxury apartments are in hyper supply and affordable rentals are hard to find. The market is already seeing lowering rents. Landlords who have kept rents below market will be forced now to raise rents as new owners will not be able to raise rents to fair market value. The only solution is more units and the state of Oregon just made that far less attractive to developers and investors who create those units. If we really want to solve the problem let’s actually solve it by creating incentives for builders to build more affordable units.

Unfortunately our representatives chose a quick politically popular band-aid and not a real solution. These new laws will push many investors out of state which is already happening at a scale beyond what I expected. It will also hurt mom and pop investors with a couple units who cannot afford the legal bills that will now come with having a rental business. The future will be corporately owned and managed super complexes whose profits will likely be headed out of state.

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Portland to have Sacramento weather by 2080?

March 22, 2019, 10:54 am

≫ Next: The Asymmetrical Seller’s Market in April

≪ Previous: Oregon Passes Statewide Rent Control

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A new research project with an amazing interactive map predicts that Portland, OR will have weather similar to the current weather in Sacramento, CA by the year 2080.

Interestingly, Seattle is predicted to have our current weather here in Portland by year 2080

Click here to use the map

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The Asymmetrical Seller’s Market in April

March 27, 2019, 11:05 am

≫ Next: SellPDX Team Launches City and State Real Estate brokerage

≪ Previous: Portland to have Sacramento weather by 2080?

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If you’ve been thinking of selling it turns out the beginning of April provides a huge advantage for sellers. In April buyers flood the market with demand but most sellers wait until later in Spring and Summer to sell creating an asymmetrical market with more buyers and sellers for a month each year.

CNBC wrote this great article on the April Real Estate Market

See the graph below to see the drop in Time on Market in Portland where typically homes sell 33% faster in April than in March!

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SellPDX Team Launches City and State Real Estate brokerage

April 2, 2019, 10:08 am

≫ Next: Take a selfie and support Boys and Girls Club and Nurkic!

≪ Previous: The Asymmetrical Seller’s Market in April

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Nick Krautter and the SellPDX Team have launched a new real estate brokerage to serve Oregon and Washington called City and State Real Estate.

“After 13 years with a major brokerage we are excited to start something new. City and State Real Estate will include more top agents in addition to the team to help clients in Oregon and Washington.” -Nick Krautter

Nick, Glenn and the SellPDX Team have always had a focus on client care and service and after 13 years as one of the top teams we are still a repeat and referral based company.

City and State Real Estate will continue to focus on the community of our clients and work with other top agents to help them grow their business and relationships with their clients.

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Take a selfie and support Boys and Girls Club and Nurkic!

April 17, 2019, 3:22 pm

≫ Next: Is it a Buyer’s Market in Portland? KOIN 6 Pre-Interview

≪ Previous: SellPDX Team Launches City and State Real Estate brokerage

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City and State Real Estate will donate up to $1,000 to Portland Boys and Girls club. For everyone who takes a selfie in front of the “We Love You Nurkic” billboard over our office building at 35 NE Weidler St in Portland and use and tag @cityandstaterealestate and #
cityandstaterealestate on instagram we will donate $5 per post up to $1,000.

See the article in the Oregonian here.

View this post on Instagram

Take a selfie in front of our sign and tag @cityandstaterealestate #cityandstaterealestate We will donate $5 to the Boys and Girls club up to $1000! #hadzonas @nurkicjokic @trailblazers @boys.and.girls_club

A post shared by CityAndStateRealEstate (@cityandstaterealestate) on Apr 17, 2019 at 11:53am PDT

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Is it a Buyer’s Market in Portland? KOIN 6 Pre-Interview

May 14, 2019, 8:27 am

≫ Next: Home appreciation slowing down: Portland Case/Shiller

≪ Previous: Take a selfie and support Boys and Girls Club and Nurkic!

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While the market isn’t as red hot as it once was in Portland it is still favoring the sellers expect for one segment of the market. Watch this video below to see where the Portland market is right now in May 2019.

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Home appreciation slowing down: Portland Case/Shiller

May 28, 2019, 11:42 am

≫ Next: Halftime Report: Portland Real Estate 2019

≪ Previous: Is it a Buyer’s Market in Portland? KOIN 6 Pre-Interview

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The latest Case/Shiller home price index just came out this morning and home price appreciation in the NW is slowing down. Even with the market cooling prices are still going up faster than inflation.

In Portland prices rose 0.7% in March 2019 and are up 2.6% over last March.

Home loan interest rates dropped considerably and are currently right at 4% for a 30 year fixed rate. These low rates contribute to continued appreciation.

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Halftime Report: Portland Real Estate 2019

May 30, 2019, 8:41 am

≫ Next: City and State CEO Nick Krautter on KOIN News

≪ Previous: Home appreciation slowing down: Portland Case/Shiller

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It’s almost halftime for 2019 and I want to give you some highlights of how this year is shaping up for real estate in the Portland Metro.

Highlights:

Portland jumps up to 25th largest city in the US despite slowing growth. Portland grew by 4,500 people from July 2017 to July 2018 according to this Oregonian article. My gut tells me growth will continue to slow in our region.

Home inventory: 2.2 months – still a sellers market except in the million dollar plus range where inventory is 7 months. A great time to move up!

Average sales price: $452,100 up 1.2% through April but flat from last year. Lots of overpriced homes on the market so expect price drops this summer but the correctly priced homes will be getting multiple offers.

Interest rates: Dropping through the year – this is a surprise to many people. Lower rates and flat prices will increase affordability.

Apartments: According to the Barry Report there are close to 9,000 units under construction as of Summer 2018 – those units are hitting the market now. Match that up with only 4,500 new residents and you can see why vacancies are up and rental rates are down. Permits for future projects are down and there is an expectation that in 2-3 years apartments could be in short supply again.

The big picture: Portland is not building enough homes so I predict that below average priced homes [for their neighborhood] will continue to rise while higher priced homes will see prices come down until inventory drops below 6 months.

Apartment rents will drop or stay flat for the next two years but then rebound as people continue to move to Portland and construction slows. Many owners of rentals are selling when units go vacant due to the State of Oregon and City of Portland rent controls. The number of homes for rent will plummet over the next decade as vacant rental homes are sold to people who will occupy the homes.

I will update this report in mid July when we have closing numbers from June 2019

The post Halftime Report: Portland Real Estate 2019 appeared first on SellPDX.

City and State CEO Nick Krautter on KOIN News

June 10, 2019, 4:34 pm

≫ Next: City and State Real Estate featured in Real Producers Magazine

≪ Previous: Halftime Report: Portland Real Estate 2019

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Watch the interview from KOIN news. Portland is a buyers market if you’re looking to move up:

https://www.koin.com/news/is-portland-a-buyer-s-market-_20190515185719/2004076792

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City and State Real Estate featured in Real Producers Magazine

June 25, 2019, 9:17 am

≫ Next: Oregon to Eliminate Single Family Zoning

≪ Previous: City and State CEO Nick Krautter on KOIN News

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City and State Real Estate just got to share our story with Real Producers Magazine. We believe our values as agents also benefit our clients. We started City and State to create a group of highly ethical, full time professional brokers who focus on our clients first.

We believe every broker deserves to: Know their people, Grow their business, and Win their future.

Nick Krautter, CEO of City and State Real Estate

Read the full article here: City and State Realty in Real Producers 

The post City and State Real Estate featured in Real Producers Magazine appeared first on SellPDX.

Oregon to Eliminate Single Family Zoning

July 2, 2019, 8:57 am

≫ Next: Seattle Prices Drop, is Portland Next?

≪ Previous: City and State Real Estate featured in Real Producers Magazine

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House Bill 2001 has passed the state House and Senate and awaits signature from the Governor Kate Brown. The new law will require all cities in Oregon over 10,000 people to allow multifamily buildings and cottage clusters in areas previously reserved for single family homes.

The law won’t take effect until 2020 likely to allow cities to revise their zoning code to incorporate this new law.

Read the actual bill here: HB2001

For a great article from the Oregonian: about HB2001

The post Oregon to Eliminate Single Family Zoning appeared first on SellPDX.

Seattle Prices Drop, is Portland Next?

July 30, 2019, 4:42 pm

≫ Next: 18 Years of Portland Real Estate Prices in One Chart

≪ Previous: Oregon to Eliminate Single Family Zoning

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The Case-Shiller index brought mostly good news from its May report this morning with one surprise. Seattle which shot up 13% from 2017-2018 has flattened out and seen a rare spring/summer drop of 1.2% from this May to last May 2018.

So, is Portland next? Portland is up 2.4% over the last 12 months. The short answer is that I expect to see appreciation flatten out in the July report, based on current RMLS data. Case-Shiller won’t report on this until the end of September due to the lag time in their reporting.

It’s still too early to call the top of the market with activity in Portland picking up and inventory still firmly in the sellers favor. Also of note are interest rates which remain low and might drop more adding more buyer power to the market.

The Portland real estate market tends to lag the national market which is up 3.4% over the last 12 months. After one of the longest recessions we’re still on a very long expansion run. And like bad news, good news doesn’t last forever. I don’t see a big crash around the corner, people still need good credit and money down unlike the last bull market in real estate from 2003-2007 and that’s good news for our future.

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